Michael Virtucio gave an presentation at the 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering held on June 30 to July 5, 2024 in Milan, Italy. His presentation entitled “Assessing Transportation Resilience Using an Image-Based Bridge Model & Semi-Dynamic Traffic Model” was included under the High-Resolution Simulation of Regional Earthquake Risk and Recovery Technical Session in the conference program. An abstract of the work is included below:
Earthquakes pose big risks to critical infrastructure systems like transportation, and its unpredictability only adds to its potential to cause great damage. Therefore, it is important to have both a local and regional understanding of the current state of seismic resilience of any transportation system. This paper uses a synthesis approach to assess different dimensions of resilience by combining an image-based structure- and-site-specific bridge fragility generation methodology with regional-scale semi-dynamic traffic simulations and impact/cost models. The proposed framework uses context-rich data such as OpenStreetMap, Google Maps, and satellite imagery to incorporate information lacking in standard analysis tools like HAZUS to construct nonlinear and structure- and site-specific bridge models which is then fed into the traffic model. Results from semi-dynamic and agent-based traffic models run on a regional transportation network which includes both freeways and local roads allows cost and impact models to be both spatially and individually disaggregated and thus leads to a granularity that allows an understanding of the direct impact to a transportation system and its users. As a case study, the proposed framework is demonstrated on the regional road network surrounding the Port of Los Angeles—critical infrastructure for freight—to assess resilience and losses at a high resolution. We find that the port area suffers disproportionate impacts in a hypothetical M 7.4 earthquake scenario, and delays in bridge repair can lead to at least a 50% increase in costs.
